Strong Storms Likely / Tornadoes Possible Across Portions of Southeast Texas Tomorrow Morning and Afternoon
A storm system will spawn severe thunderstorms tomorrow from the I-35 corridor to Southeast Texas with a few tornadoes possible. Beginning in the early morning hours, low pressure will deepen across east Texas ahead of a cold front, with a warm front lifting northward ahead of the track of the low. This environment will promote supercells and potentially tornadoes.
Current model trends show with ample moisture in place, a line of strong storms will be ongoing at dawn and pushing through the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Austin to Waco during the early morning commute. These storms could be severe and will pose mainly a wind and hail threat.
Storms late in the morning and in the afternoon will interact with a strongly sheared environment (especially with northward extent in the risk areas). According to the Storm Prediction Center "models indicate strong low-level shear developing with 0-3 km SRH in the 300-400 m2/s2 range, which is very supportive of supercells given the moist air mass and adequate instability. Hodographs look most favorable over east central into southeast Texas" between 9am and 3pm CST.
This will be the time of greatest risk for damaging storms and tornadoes before the mode transitions into a straight line wind event as it exists into Louisiana.
The SPC says "any discrete supercells will have a threat of tornadoes in this environment. Mitigating factors to tornado longevity may be some weakness in wind fields around 700 mb especially in southern areas, and potential for numerous storm interactions. However, a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out."
Bottom line. There should be showers and strong storms impacting a large portion of the state early tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Heavy rain, wind and lightning will be a good bet anywhere in the risk area. Some places could see a tornado, possibly strong. Have a way to receive weather warnings and a safety plan in place.
Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast. For official information check information issued from your local National Weather Service Office and the Storm Prediciton Center. Jason Weingart is an author and photographer, who has been chasing thunderstorms for eight years.